"Development of Application of the Method of the Analysis of Scenarios in Profitable Approach to Estimation of Cost of the Oil Company"

Vanchukhina, L. I., Leybert, T. B., Halikova, E. А., Rudneva, Y. R.

Abstract

The article proposes a technique for estimating the value of an enterprise on the basis of a profitable approach, supplemented by an analysis of optimistic, pessimistic and basic scenarios for the development of the enterprise. The results of its application for estimating the value of the oil company are given. To calculate these retrospective data, three cash flow projections for the next five years were analyzed. When calculating the combination of accounting rates of CWM IWACC methods to ensure compliance with the current situation in the company and the market, a measurement of the income and expense scale was required. Studying the dynamics of stock prices allowed to prove the probability distribution of the implementation of each of the scenarios and to identify the overall assessment.

Keywords: company value, estimated cost, discount rate, cost of capital, analysis of scenarios of sequence of events, cash flow.

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Vanchukhina, L. I., Leybert, T. B., Halikova, E. А., Rudneva, Y. R. "Development of Application of the Method of the Analysis of Scenarios in Profitable Approach to Estimation of Cost of the Oil Company" Bulletin Social-Economic and Humanitarian Research, Volume 1, Number 1, (February 2018) P. 55 - 61. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.2528888